iRobbed

About three weeks ago, I got an iPod. As one of NCPC’s illustrious team of web geeks, I should have had one years ago (we’re supposed to be the “early adopters”), but for some reason, I held out until now. Saving a few glitches here and there, I’m really enjoying having music on my commute and being able to check my email at coffee shops. I’m not, however, enjoying having to worry about another electronic device; I’m already constantly fearing that I’ve lost my cell phone, and having another small, desirable piece of hardware on my person all day has only increased my paranoia. According to the Urban Institute, though, my fears are not unfounded; in a recent research report [PDF] by John Roman and Aaron Chalfin, they assert that “the rise in violent offending [in 2005 and 2006] and the explosion in the sales of iPods and other portable media devices is more than coincidental … over the past two years, America may have experienced an iCrime wave.” In building this case, though, they present a very interesting theory: crime has spiked not because criminals have changed but because victims are more appealing.

Initially, the report sets up three conditions for why iPods (and other desirable gadgets) may be behind the violent crime spike and not just coincidental with it. The writers use as evidence the fact that robbery has spiked significantly more than other property crimes (such as burglary), that young robbers are responsible for the increased robberies, and that robbery has increased with iPod sales. These three trends, though, do not make a cause; as the authors themselves assert, “the relationship between the release of the iPod and the recent rise in robberies is purely correlation, and our conclusions should therefore be interpreted with caution.”

To lend credence to their claims, the authors use economics to construct a theory of how attractive electronics could help spur a crime spike. They break crime problems down into supply (victims) and demand (criminals) for crime, claiming that “most explanations of the recent crime increase have focused on … factors that might change the demand for crime.” These explanations tend to focus on changed policing patterns (in response to terrorism) or increasingly violent teens (who are made violent by the media). However, according to the report’s authors, these factors do not explain the trend; teens have been barraged by violence in the media since the 1990s (when crime actually went down), and crime is up most in places that terror touches least (small and mid-sized cities). Instead, the authors offer a supply-side theory: there are more lucrative victims out there, because people are carrying expensive electronics, which gives existing robbers more incentive to rob and other criminals a reason to switch to robbery. This explanation fits within the rationale of economics generally: imagine something desirable (say, iPods) dropped quite a bit in price but not in quality. More people would buy them, and people who would generally buy other devices might instead buy iPods because they are cheaper.

If the supply-side theory of crime is right, and the report certainly makes a convincing case, it puts prevention in an even more important light. Crime prevention targets specifically the supply of victims by making ordinary people less likely to fall prey to criminals. In this case, the problem appears to be that people are not aware enough of prevention techniques associated with their gadgets (such as marking them with identifying information, keeping them out of their belts, keeping them out of view, and avoiding those white earbuds). Thinking more generally though, these results highlight the need for prevention in all aspects of life.

Hat tip to Thinking About Corrections.

Comments

[Kate]

I feel the same way...

[Nicole]

If you don't want to get robbed then don't carry it around so everyone knows you have it.

[Matthew Bowen]

@Kate - I think a lot of people do -- if the Urban institute is correct, we have good reason to, too; the sudden crime spike may well be caused by iPods.

@Nicole - You have hit at the heart of the prevention advice on personal electronics; don't show them off and you're going to be safer.