Can Alcoholics Anonymous Prevent Murder?

A recent study conducted by Robert Mann from the University of Toronto and Mark Asbridge from Dalhousie University (Halifax, Nova Scotia) shows a relationship between the number of people who joined Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) between 1968 and 1991 and the number of murders that have taken place in Canada during that same period.  The researchers found that for every one person who joined AA, the murder rate declined between .03 and .05 percent.  These findings were applicable only to men as the researchers did not find any relationship with women.  The justification for this drop in the murder rate is grounded in the large amount of literature that shows that alcohol consumption contributes to violence.

While these findings present an interesting argument for the decline in the murder rate between 1968 and 1991, the question still remains as to whether the relationship between the number of AA members and the murder rate is causal; is there a direct relationship, with one causing the other, or is it merely correlational, meaning that the two variables change together?  Also, other studies conducted in this field have shown that alcohol consumption is directly related to the poverty level, and that locations with greater poverty had higher alcohol consumption that in turn led to more violent crimes (Parker, 1995).  Parker also recognized the fact that his data had limitations because it was collected in the United States at the state level, not a national level. 

One last issue that I see with the above study is the fact that the researchers are basing their findings on the number of people who are self-reported members of an anonymous organization that helps people fight an addiction that is considered socially undesirable.  As with all self-reported surveys, there are methodological issues, which include sampling problems, response rate, and validity of the responses (Junger-Tas & Marshall, 1999).  These problems could possibly be amplified by the fact that people are being asked to report about something that most people consider very private—hence the reason the group is anonymous. 

After considering all of these issues, is it really possible to make a definite determination that by shipping people off to AA meetings, murder can be prevented? 

Comments

[do it sober]

Arguably, there is at least some difference between someone who has been shipped off to AA meetings and someone who has declared themselves a "card carrying" member of the fellowship of Alcoholics Anonymous. The idea presented in your article is very interesting and made sense to a group of sober AA members over dinner this evening because of the obvious alcohol/violence connection. But the idea of sending people into AA will avert the potential for certain individuals to commit murder is sort of pie in the sky. It would be like giving away free gym memberships to obese people and thinking they would all get physically fit.